General trend of the hottest container transportat

The general trend of the container transportation market (I)

since this year, with the sharp shock of the world political and economic situation, the trend of the international shipping market has also changed, especially having a great impact on the development of the container transportation market. At present, people are very concerned about the main problems and trends faced by the market

1. The impact of the external environment on container transportation

the softer development of the world economy and trade has had a great impact on the container transportation market. The sharp decline in the growth rate of the U.S. economy is the main factor that significantly slows down the growth of millions of world economies. The demand of domestic consumers for Asian goods in the United States has obviously shown a downward trend, which is reflected in the shipping industry, that is, the cargo volume of ports and carriers has been declining. In particular, the "9.11" incident has had a significant and tasteful impact on the United States and the world economy. This has brought a new and greater impact on the Asian economy, which is already in a weak recovery. It can be said that at present, except China, almost all Asian countries are facing a severe economic situation, which undoubtedly has a direct and significant impact on international container transportation. It is mainly reflected in the sharp decline in the growth rate of container traffic volume of routes in Asia/North America, Asia/Europe and Asia, the excess capacity of the market, the downturn in freight rates, and the sharp rise in the operating costs of shipping companies. Especially in the peak season this year, the general performance of the world is poor. The container throughput of each port has declined significantly year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the container swallowing volume of Auckland port has decreased by 5% year-on-year; Long Beach port decreased by 2.3% year-on-year; Vancouver fell by 6% year-on-year and Singapore by 14.82%. The total container throughput for the whole year may fall by nearly 18%

the increase of world economy and trade has opened up new possibilities for the scope production and design of automotive interiors. Undoubtedly, the changes have a great impact on the international container transportation market. It can be said that this year's international container transportation market has been hot and weak for the whole year, and it is basically a foregone conclusion. If the world economy and trade can recover like the economic circles, it is believed that containerization is worth paying attention to that the environment for the development of container transportation market may be slightly better than this year

2. The intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is the biggest problem facing the container transportation market. It is estimated that the global container fleet will reach 7.3 million TEU by the end of the year, which greatly exceeds the market demand, which is bound to reduce the marginal income of carriers

it is expected that the capacity of the full container fleet will increase by 25% this year and next, of which the new capacity will reach 12.5% this year, with a total of 600000 TEU. The total capacity of the global container ship fleet has exceeded 5million TEU in June this year. However, since 81 super large ships have been put into service from the second half of this year to the end of next year, it is expected that the global container ship capacity will exceed 6million TEU by the end of next year. However, the forecast analysis of cargo volume is significantly lower than the growth of transportation capacity. In 2001, the freight volume of global routes will reach about 73 million TEU, about 6% higher than last year. This year, the global port throughput is expected to reach 248 million TEU, an increase of about 10%. All kinds of signs show that in the face of severe energy and environmental challenges, the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the international container transportation market will be maintained for a considerable period of time

according to the analysis, from January to September this year, the trans Pacific general line freight volume increased by 20% year-on-year, while the new capacity on the route increased by 8%; In the first half of the year, the freight volume of Asia Europe westward route increased by only 4% - 5%, while the transportation capacity increased by 12%; Although the transatlantic route was deeply affected by the global economic downturn, it did not have a large influx of super strange Nama ships like other trunk lines, and the supply of transport capacity was basically balanced with the volume

3. Route freight rates remain depressed

at present, the problem that makes the shipping industry very headache is the continuous downturn of the general line. Affected by factors such as the slowdown in the attire of the container freight market and the substantial increase in transport capacity, the price increase plans of most freight organizations last year have not been fully implemented. Although the trans Pacific freight rate stabilization Organization (TSA) still formulated a relatively high price increase plan this year, the plan has become a mere formality. This is the first time that TSA has failed to implement gri (generalrateincrease) since the implementation of the new United States 1 is the United States Maritime Transport Reform Act (OSRA) in 1998. In view of the same factors, some freight organizations not only failed to implement the moving promotion plan, but also sharply reduced the price on the contrary

it is understood that in the past year, the freight rate of Asia Europe westbound line has fallen to 700 US dollars/teu, and the lowest level of ordinary dry container goods on the eastbound line has fallen to 300 US dollars/teu by September. The two-way freight rate has fallen by more than 30% year-on-year. The decision of some freight organizations to make appropriate adjustments to the freight rate in the second half of the year can only be partially implemented (for example, the Far East Airlines Association changed the original plan of raising the price of US $250 per TEU on the west of the Asian/Nordic route from August 1 to US $100, etc.). As the new power of global routes will reach 12.5% this year, it is expected that the freight revenue on routes will be reduced by 3% - 5%, and the average marginal profit of carriers will be reduced by 3% - 6%. (chendeming) (market weekly)